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There are many political exits, and the car companies are helpless--the new energy vehicle carbon quota starts
The NDRC's "carbon quota" policy has reached a new level of strength. This policy is directly tied to the survival of automobile companies, and it is far more stringent than previous regulations and incentives. Jia Xinguang, executive director of the China Automobile Dealers Association, shared these insights with the China Economic Weekly after the introduction of the "carbon quota" policy.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released the "New Energy Vehicle Carbon Quota Management Measures (Draft for Comment)" which provides a clearer framework for implementing carbon quotas for automakers. The document not only outlines the specific pricing of carbon emissions but also defines the scope of application and applicable models for the carbon quota system. It requires relevant automotive companies and industry associations to submit written responses within a specified timeframe. According to the NDRC, the official policy is expected to be launched in 2017. At that time, the "carbon quota" approach was seen as a stronger regulatory tool compared to earlier financial incentive policies for new energy vehicles.
Under the previous encouragement and subsidy policies, some manufacturers of fuel-efficient vehicles, especially those producing off-road and SUV models, could ignore new energy vehicles. However, with the implementation of the "carbon quota" system, each car company will be assigned a certain carbon emission quota. Once this quota is exhausted, they will either face fines based on their actual emissions or purchase surplus quotas from other companies. This mechanism aims to penalize outdated technology while promoting advanced innovations—something more comprehensive than past policies, according to Jia Xinguang.
It is understood that when the NDRC announced the draft of the "Measures for the Management of Carbon Equity for New Energy Vehicles," it also explained the gradual reduction of financial subsidies for new energy vehicles: by 2018, subsidies would be reduced by 20% compared to 2016 levels; by 2020, they would be cut by 40%.
With the introduction of the "carbon quota" era, this quota is becoming a lifeline for many auto manufacturers. Jia Xinguang commented: "This move was somewhat unexpected. Previously, only high-emission industries like cement and steel were included in the carbon allowance market. This time, the automotive sector was also brought into the system. Many people inside the car companies didn’t even know what 'carbon quota' or 'carbon market' meant after the release of the document. I believe this is a sudden test for many automotive companies."
What exactly is a "carbon quota"? The draft states that the carbon quota for new energy vehicles refers to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions compared to traditional fuel vehicles. It clearly stipulates that companies must calculate the total amount of COâ‚‚ emissions they should reduce based on the proportion of new energy vehicles they are required to produce. This represents the total carbon credits that new enterprises must pay. Companies can meet these requirements by producing and selling new energy vehicles or purchasing excess carbon allowances from other firms. Additionally, the government may control part of the carbon allowances through acquisition or financial support.
Some analysts suggest that the draft draws inspiration from California’s ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicle) credit system. Jia Xinguang explained: "In the U.S. ZEV Act, electric vehicles earn positive points, while fuel vehicles receive negative points depending on engine displacement. Producing more electric vehicles gives car companies more points. The government then rewards or penalizes companies based on these points. Those with insufficient points must either pay fines or buy points from others."
Tesla serves as a notable example of how the carbon credit policy benefits new energy vehicle manufacturers. In 2013, Tesla lost $74 million, but it earned $130 million from the carbon credit market, helping it offset its losses. Jia Xinguang noted: "This approach is very direct in supporting new energy vehicle manufacturers and is more efficient than financial subsidies. By gradually replacing subsidies with 'carbon quotas,' the government has two main considerations: first, to prevent companies from cheating through improper means; second, to force traditional automakers to adopt the latest technologies, otherwise their future prospects will be bleak. Previously, companies could simply take money from the government without any real effort. Now, if they don't meet the quota, they'll face penalties."
Jia also pointed out that once the policy is officially implemented, companies like Tesla, which have already developed strong positions in the new energy vehicle market, will benefit significantly in China.
What is a reasonable price for carbon? One key factor in the carbon credit system is the carbon price, which remains undefined in the current draft. If the price is too low, it won’t adequately punish automakers that continue to produce traditional fuel vehicles, nor will it sufficiently incentivize them to adopt the latest technologies or invest in new energy vehicles. Conversely, if the price is too high, it could negatively impact the stable development of the new energy vehicle industry.
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