The semiconductor boom is stronger in the second half of the year

According to Taiwan media reports, foundry leader TSMC announced that its consolidated revenue in May reached 34.819 billion yuan (NTT, the same below), an increase of about 3% from April, a record high, due to the current capacity utilization rate of TSMC. Full load, under the continuous expansion of new capacity expansion, it is expected that the revenue will continue to grow in June, the legal person estimates, TSMC's second quarter revenue will exceed the previous estimate of 102 billion yuan. Zhang Zhongmou, chairman of TSMC, reiterated yesterday that it seems that the semiconductor market will be better than the first half of the year.

TSMC's revenue in the first five months of the year increased by 84%. TSMC announced its May revenue report yesterday. In terms of non-consolidated financial statements, revenue was approximately 33.839 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5% from April, while consolidated revenues reached 34.819 billion yuan, an increase of 3% from April. Cumulative revenues in the first five months of this year have reached 168.815 billion yuan, a significant increase of 84.4% over the same period last year.

According to equipment manufacturers, TSMC's capacity utilization rate in the second quarter is fully loaded, and the full capacity can still be maintained in the third quarter. There is no external EU sovereign debt problem, the situation in South and North Korea is tight, and the unemployment rate in Europe and the United States still exists. High and no external environmental factors.

The legal person estimates that TSMC's consolidated revenue in June will rebound to more than 35 billion yuan, and revenue in the second quarter will reach 103.6 billion yuan, which is better than TSMC's previously estimated range of 100 billion to 100.2 billion yuan, including new sources. The depreciation of the Taiwan dollar exchange rate, as well as orders such as 65/55 nm and 40 nm, are strong, and the advanced process capacity below 0.13 micron is still in short supply, and the supply gap is still around 30%.

At present, Taiwan's economy is quite good. Zhang Zhongmou, chairman of TSMC, said yesterday that, according to his personal observation, the current situation in Taiwan is quite good. Whether it is the accounting office or the IMF (International Monetary Fund) estimate for this year's GDP, it may actually happen, just A good economy does not mean that the unemployment rate will drop rapidly because there are still structural problems.

However, Zhang Zhongmou is still very optimistic about the semiconductor market. He said that he still maintains his previous view in the law conference, that is, the second half of the year will be better than the first half of the year, but only for the changes in the quarter, because the first half of the year is already very good, the growth rate in the first half of the year will naturally slow down. For example, the traditional peak season in the third quarter of this year is still there, but in the second quarter, when the base period is already high, the quarterly growth rate of output value will not be as good as in previous years.

Europe's influence on semiconductors is relatively limited. As the issue of sovereign debt in Europe remains unresolved, the market has already raised doubts about the decline in demand, but Zhang Zhongmou pointed out that the European debt problem may affect local demand, but because the world's largest semiconductor market is the North American market, The fastest growing market is mainland China, and the impact of the European market on the development of the semiconductor industry is relatively limited, so it seems that there is no need to worry too much.

Zhang Zhongmou further explained that the most direct impact of the European debt problem is the economies of the European region. These effects are all directed at the European debt problem itself. However, because the European debt problem is causing excessive panic in global financial markets, these irrational reactions The continuation of the impact is the part that is worth worrying about.