Photovoltaic industry to achieve large-scale development of the future of the photovoltaic market will be how much?

According to a recent report by the UN Renewable Energy Agency, the cost of photovoltaic (PV) power generation has dropped by 70% over the past seven years. This significant decline, driven by technological advancements, has fueled an explosive growth in the global PV market. In 2023, China's PV industry experienced its most promising development period in a decade, with new installations surpassing 50 GW for the first time and completing the "13th Five-Year Plan" ahead of schedule. The sector is showing strong momentum, but challenges remain as the industry looks toward the future. The image above showcases the Longji 15MW Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation Power Station in Yanchuan County, Shaanxi Province—a project highlighting how solar energy can support both economic growth and social development. At the recent China (Xi'an) Photovoltaic Hard Technology Innovation Summit, experts predicted that global PV installed capacity could reach 1,000 GW over the next five to seven years—nearly five times the current global capacity of 200 GW. However, according to Li Junfeng, chairman of the China Energy Research Association’s Renewable Energy Committee, this scale is still far from sufficient to meet global or even China’s long-term energy needs. Michael Schemla, a senior advisor to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, noted that while the term "global market" is often used, the real driver of solar growth is Asia, particularly China. In 2016, Asian countries accounted for half of global PV installations, and today that figure has risen to two-thirds, with China alone contributing 50% of the total. “China is clearly the main force behind the solar energy revolution,” he said. Data from Citi highlights China’s dominance in the PV supply chain. In 2017, China produced 238,000 tons of polysilicon—59% of the world’s total—and led in wafer, cell, and module production, accounting for 85%, 63%, and 68% of global output, respectively. The country also holds the top position in newly installed PV capacity, reaching 53 GW in 2023, a five-year consecutive global lead. Last year, it surpassed thermal power to become the largest source of electricity in the country. Geng Zheyi, deputy chief engineer at the State Grid Corporation Dispatching Control Center, shared positive updates on distributed PV systems. As of the end of 2023, China’s distributed PV capacity reached 19.44 GW, a 3.7-fold increase from the previous year. If this growth rate continues, the target of 60 GW under the "13th Five-Year Plan" may be achieved as early as 2024. Li Zhengguo, president of Longji Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., emphasized that the rapid expansion of China’s PV industry is largely due to falling costs. Over the past decade, the cost of PV systems has dropped from $10/W to $1/W, a 90% reduction. Monocrystalline silicon wafer prices have fallen from 100 yuan per watt to just 4.55 yuan, less than 5% of their original price. Electricity generation costs have also plummeted, from $1/kWh to below $0.1/kWh, with several projects in the Middle East and South America achieving rates as low as 33 cents/kWh. However, Guodian Investment’s Xie Xiaoping pointed out that subsidies remain a critical issue. “Industries that rely on subsidies are not sustainable,” he said. “Affordable access to solar energy is essential for long-term growth.” Looking ahead, Li Zhengguo believes that the combination of PV and energy storage will become increasingly cost-effective. While energy storage is developing more slowly, he predicts that its costs will drop to one-third of current levels within the next decade, making “PV + energy storage” a viable and economical solution. Despite these achievements, Li Junfeng argues that 1,000 GW is still too conservative. Based on China’s energy demand projections, by 2030, the country will need at least 800 GW of PV capacity to generate 1.1 trillion kWh annually—equivalent to 10% of total electricity consumption. To reach this goal, China would need to install at least 50 GW of new PV capacity each year. “We should not reduce the scale, but rather expand it moderately,” he said. As the PV industry continues to grow, both technological innovation and supportive policies will play a crucial role. While hardware improvements have contributed to lower costs, soft policies—such as regulatory frameworks and market incentives—will become even more important as the industry scales up. Source: China Energy News Author: Gu Kehua

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